Thesis

‍The best Bitcoin miners control one of the most valuable AI infrastructure assets globally: secured large-scale power capacity in a market structurally short of energy and compute.

‍Edge

‍Our multi-year coverage of Bitcoin miners through our dedicated crypto team, combined with deep expertise across the AI value chain, allowed us to identify the inflection early. We understood that the company was positioning itself at the intersection of the two key bottlenecks created by rising AI demand: power scarcity and data center infrastructure.

‍Signal

‍Frequent in-person visits to US data centers, regular CEO discussions over several years, and proprietary monitoring of the grid interconnection pipeline in Texas — while the market still viewed IREN primarily as a Bitcoin miner.

‍Key Move

‍We entered well before the AI pivot and continued to build the position as IREN launched IREN Cloud with 248 H100 GPUs. At that point, IREN was still valued at around USD 2m/MW, compared with more than USD 30m/MW for traditional data centers. We realized gains several times and continue to hold part of the position.

Thesis

Pharmaceutical distribution in the US is an intermediary problem: too many layers, too much friction, and structurally inflated prices. Hims built the direct channel — a subscription platform without intermediaries, offering personalized treatment protocols at scale.

‍Edge

‍Our analysts assessed Hims not only as a healthcare company, but as a consumer subscription platform. Cohort LTV and churn dynamics pointed to SaaS-like economics, not traditional pharma. This was combined with our proprietary GLP-1 tracking across the full value chain.

‍Signal

‍Proprietary monitoring of FDA shortage data for semaglutide and compounding pharmacy volumes allowed BIT Capital to identify the regulatory window for Hims’ GLP-1 offensive before it became consensus.

‍Key Move

‍We entered in February 2023, when Hims was still viewed as a failed SPAC and GLP-1 was not yet a major market theme. We realized gains several times and continue to hold part of the position.

Thesis

Chronic diseases account for more than 70% of US healthcare costs — yet they are systematically treated less effectively than acute conditions. Livongo inverted the model: continuous remote monitoring, behavior-based interventions, and outcomes-based pricing for employers.

‍Edge

‍We identified Livongo as a B2B2C SaaS platform with a clinical moat — not as a medical device company. Recurring membership fees, high retention, and measurable cost reductions for employers created a subscription model with structurally increasing willingness to pay.

‍Signal

‍Early analysis of the employer adoption curve and Net Promoter data indicated that Livongo’s clinical outcomes could drive structurally lower churn than the market was pricing in. We combined this with continuous monitoring of the diabetes management TAM within the US employer benefits market.

‍Key Move

‍We invested before the COVID-driven digitalization wave accelerated Livongo’s valuation into summer 2020. The position was fully exited through the Teladoc acquisition, which closed on October 30, 2020.

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Thesis

Securities trading for Asian retail investors had been dominated for decades by slow-moving banks: expensive, inefficient, and with limited access to US markets. Futu rebuilt this market digitally — low-cost access to global exchanges, mobile-first, and enhanced with social media features. Initially focused on Chinese investors, the platform was then systematically internationalized under the Moomoo brand.

‍Edge

Our China-based analysts, with direct management access, systematically assessed the competitive landscape. Their conclusion was clear: Futu was the technological, product-led, and distribution winner in the race for digital wealth management in Greater China.

‍Signal

Continuous monitoring of paying clients and assets under administration as core operating metrics — combined with analysis of user momentum in international markets as an early indicator of decoupling from China-specific regulatory risk.

‍Key Move

We entered in October 2020, ahead of the major re-rating. We started taking profits aggressively from USD 90 — roughly a 3x increase within only a few months.

Thesis

Carvana built the fully digital channel for used cars: no dealer, no negotiation, delivery to the customer’s doorstep. A direct model in a USD 1 trillion market without a structurally comparable competitor.

‍Edge

‍We separated operating substance from financing noise. When the market priced in bankruptcy in 2022, BIT Capital’s unit economics analysis showed that Carvana’s margin structure and market share dynamics remained intact. The debt problem was solvable. The business model was not broken.

‍Signal

‍Detailed modelling of debt restructuring options and liquidity paths allowed us to identify management’s strategic room for manoeuvre before the April 2023 restructuring became consensus.

‍Key Move

A successful investment against consensus. We entered during the bankruptcy panic, when Carvana was trading below USD 5.

Thesis

Programmatic ad buying shifted hundreds of billions from traditional TV budgets into data-driven targeting. The Trade Desk was the only relevant scaled player acting exclusively on behalf of advertisers — without proprietary inventory and without conflicts of interest. Google sat on both sides of the table. The Trade Desk did not.

‍Edge

With adtech founders inhouse, we identified early the shift in advertising budgets from linear TV toward connected streaming platforms. We recognized The Trade Desk as a structural beneficiary: neutral, independent, and equipped with superior measurement technology versus the platforms of the large technology companies.

‍Signal

Continuous monitoring of Connected TV ad spend as a leading indicator for The Trade Desk’s revenue development — combined with analysis of UID2 reach as a measure of progress in building a cookie-independent data infrastructure.

‍Key Move

We entered in May 2018, when repeated disappointments across the adtech sector had left the market with limited confidence. We captured the full re-rating to USD 606–710 by the end of 2020 — a 7–8x increase from our entry price.

Thesis

Robinhood brought a new generation of retail investors into the capital markets — investors traditional branch-based banks had never reached. Zero-commission trading, a mobile-first user experience, and integrated crypto access turned Robinhood into the entry point for financial participation. The platform is now evolving from a trading app into a full-stack wealth management platform for younger households.

‍Edge

‍We identified a structural mispricing. Robinhood operated with balance sheet leverage of 5.3x, well below Interactive Brokers at 9.1x and Charles Schwab at 11.1x. In parallel, our proprietary data models forecast key quarterly metrics with a high degree of accuracy ahead of reported results.

‍Signal

Monthly tracking of assets under custody and paying subscribers confirmed platform growth even during market drawdowns. Full product monitoring — from Prediction Markets to Robinhood Banking — allowed us to assess the pace of innovation in real time.

‍Key Move

We materially increased the position after the post-IPO drawdown, when the market still dismissed Robinhood as a meme-stock retail broker. We continued to build the position with discipline and took profits systematically as the thesis was increasingly reflected in the valuation.

Thesis

Reddit is the internet’s largest archive of authentic human opinions and experiences — built over more than 20 years and difficult to replicate. This is exactly the type of raw material AI companies need to train large language models. The market misread Reddit as a pure social media advertising platform.

‍Edge

We identified Reddit’s transition from advertising platform to data licensing provider for AI training before this revenue stream appeared in consensus models. This was reinforced by our view that Google’s deeper integration of Reddit content into search results would create a self-reinforcing user acquisition loop.

‍Signal

Early monitoring of data licensing agreements with leading AI model providers and registered user growth as key indicators for rising advertising revenues — tracked through primary sources well before the IPO.

‍Key Move

We entered three months after the IPO, when the market was still caught between IPO enthusiasm and valuation skepticism, before the data licensing thesis had become evident. We continue to hold the position.

Thesis

Southeast Asia was the last large consumer market without an established platform leader: 700 million people, a rising middle class, and limited access to traditional financial products. Sea used gaming profits to build commerce scale — and commerce data to develop payments and credit infrastructure.

‍Edge‍

We tracked Southeast Asia’s consumer internet markets early and identified Sea’s three-sided platform model: Garena funded Shopee, Shopee built the user base for SeaMoney. This was long before Western investors recognized the full platform logic.

‍Signal

‍Proprietary usage data across Shopee and Garena in core markets such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand confirmed market leadership and operational superiority versus Lazada in real time — before the market priced Sea as a regional platform champion.

‍Key Move

We entered in July 2019, well before the COVID-driven acceleration, when Sea was barely on the radar of Western investors. We took profits systematically as the stock approached roughly USD 370 in 2021 and the valuation began to price in every optimistic scenario.

Thesis

Spinal muscular atrophy had long been treated with therapies targeting survival motor neuron protein, but not the underlying muscle weakness itself. Apitegromab selectively inhibits myostatin activation and therefore addresses the disease at a different biological point. As an add-on to established therapies, it targets a problem that existing treatments were structurally unable to solve.

Edge

BIT Capital’s biotech analysts identified Apitegromab’s complementary mechanism of action. The combination of a validated Phase 2 signal and a clearly defined patient group within the already treated SMA population created a manageable approval risk with significant upside potential.

‍Signal

Detailed analysis of the TOPAZ Phase 3 trial design and primary endpoints — combined with direct scientific exchange on the relevance of myostatin inhibition as an adjunctive treatment approach, before positive study data became public.

‍Key Move

We entered at the trough of the biotech downturn, when the market had not yet priced in the Phase 3 outcome. FDA approval followed in December 2024.