AI ROI Research Memo: Overcapacity or Underestimated Demand?

USD 661 billion in expected hyperscaler capex in 2026, more than USD 1 trillion by 2028, and an ongoing intense debate around a potential AI bubble. This brings one decisive question into focus: are the substantial AI investments outpacing demand, or are they financing the infrastructure build-out required for a structural growth cycle?

In our new research memo, we analyse:

- why current valuations, despite elevated capital intensity, cannot be equated with classic bubble dynamics,

- why hyperscaler capex is at unprecedented levels yet creates strategic entry barriers and potential long-term return sources,

- how AI revenues are distributed across infrastructure, application layer, and industrial adoption,

- and why AI is likely to widen the gap between structural winners and companies exposed to disruption.